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CAF Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CAF may benefit from China's economic recovery and policy shifts, driving market confidence and price increase, particularly if geopolitical tensions ease.

Bearish Case: Prolonged geopolitical tensions and internal economic challenges in China could suppress CAF's price, further exacerbated by low historical likelihood of positive returns.

Potential Outcomes: Mean reversion within ±5%: 50%
Economic upturn with 10% gain: 20%
Geopolitical instability causing 10% decline: 30%

May 06, 2025

Morgan Stanley China A Share Forecast

CAF Morgan Stanley China A Share

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CAF

YINN Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares (0.95)

MCHI BTC iShares MSCI China (0.94)

BABA Alibaba (0.82)

ZLAB Zai Lab (0.72)

BMO Bank of Montreal (0.72)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAF

EA Electronic Arts (0.0)

DDD 3D Systems (-0.01)

INTC Intel (0.01)

TMHC Taylor Morrison Home (0.02)

FE Firstenergy (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAF

NVO Novo Nordisk (-0.61)

MUR Murphy Oil (-0.63)

CAL Caleres (-0.66)

AMC AMC Entertainment (-0.67)

NUVB Nuvation Bio (-0.75)

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