Bullish Case: GBTC's recent ETF conversion may continue attracting new investors, fostering improved liquidity and eroding the discount to NAV, supporting price appreciation.


Bearish Case: High fees, hefty competition from IBIT and FBTC, and regulatory risks post-conversion result in continuous GBTC outflows, pressuring the price downward.


Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of GBTC rebounding on ETF adoption; 40% chance of extended declines on outflows; 30% chance of range-bound trading on competitive pressures.


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March 23, 2024


Grayscale Bitcoin Forecast

GBTC        Grayscale Bitcoin
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: TRENDING (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with GBTC



WRB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WRB]  W.R. Berkley (0.95)


AROC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AROC]  Archrock (0.94)


WSM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WSM]  Williams-Sonoma (0.94)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [OWL]  Blue Owl (0.94)


BWXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BWXT]  BWX (0.94)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to GBTC



WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WMT]  Walmart (-0.0)


KNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [KNX]  Knight-Swift Transportation (0.0)


RH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RH]  RH - (0.0)


CUBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CUBE]  CubeSmart (0.0)


ZBRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ZBRA]  Zebra (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against GBTC



CHPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CHPT]  ChargePoint (-0.9)


SPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPWR]  Sunpower (-0.92)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VXX]  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.92)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UVXY]  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.92)


PFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PFE]  Pfizer (-0.93)





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