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GRBK Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: Strong institutional support and solid earnings growth underpin GRBK's potential for recovery, especially as implied volatility indicates markets underestimating this upside. Targeting longer expirations could capitalize on this growth.

Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility signals market skepticism, suggesting potential overvaluation risk. Insider selling and mixed recent performance could lead to substantial pullbacks, particularly if broader market declines persist.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued earnings growth: 65% chance,

2) Market pullback leading to price decline: 25% chance,

3) Stable price range with minor fluctuations: 10% chance.

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November 20, 2024

Green Brick Forecast

GRBK Green Brick

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GRBK

PHM PulteGroup (0.94)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.92)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.92)

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.92)

MOD Modine Manufacturing (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GRBK

BUD Anheuser-Busch (0.0)

OLPX Olaplex (-0.0)

AVXL Anavex Life Sciences (-0.02)

IVR Invesco Mortgage (-0.02)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GRBK

CRSR Corsair Gaming (-0.84)

EWCZ European Wax Center (-0.85)

OCSL Oaktree Specialty Lending (-0.87)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.88)

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