Bullish Case: MDC's recent steady price, low price to book ratio, and inclusion in bullish analyst sentiment suggests resilience and potential upside, especially as potential rate cuts may boost the homebuilding sector.


Bearish Case: Despite recent steadiness, possible overvaluation, shareholder alerts, and insider sales signal caution. Inflation concerns and their impact on interest rates could pressure the homebuilding industry and MDC.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Fed rate cuts lead to increased housing market activity, boosting MDC (35%).

2) Persistent inflation leads to continued high rates, impacting homebuilding sentiment (40%).

3) Stagnation prolongs, with MDC remaining flat (25%).


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April 16, 2024


M.D.C. Holdings Forecast

MDC        M.D.C. Holdings
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with MDC



NAIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [NAIL]  Direxion Daily Homebuilders & Supplies Bull 3X Shares (0.98)


BLDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BLDR]  Builders Firstsource (0.97)


ITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ITB]  BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.97)


XHB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XHB]  SPDR Homebuilders (0.96)


DGRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DGRO]  iShares Core Dividend Growth (0.96)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to MDC



SMPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SMPL]  Simply Good Foods (0.0)


UGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [UGI]  UGI (0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [EOG]  EOG Resources (-0.0)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JOBY]  Joby Aviation (0.0)


ATNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ATNM]  Actinium Pharmaceuticals (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against MDC



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SPXS]  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SDOW]  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.94)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DXD]  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.94)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SRTY]  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.96)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TZA]  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)





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