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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: MMI's strong history of handling high-value deals and upcoming strategic acquisitions suggest potential recovery amidst a volatile market, likely driving investor confidence and stock price upward.

Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility coupled with potential declines in commercial real estate demand may continue suppressing MMI's share price, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment among investors.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued deal flow (80% likelihood);

2. Volatility spikes leading to short-term price declines (25% likelihood);

3. Market stabilization driving a slow recovery (60% likelihood);

4. Regulatory challenges impacting operations (30% likelihood).

Trading Oracle: Implement a long volatility strategy via a bullish debit spread by purchasing the January 2025 40C and selling the January 2025 45C. This captures upside potential while hedging against high implied volatility through the next quarter, aiming for a 30-40% profit target.

August 20, 2024