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MOS Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Mosaic's strong agricultural fundamentals and sustained fertilizer demand are expected to drive prices higher, reinforced by strategic initiatives in emerging markets and technological innovations.



Bearish Case: Economic headwinds, particularly in the agricultural sector and potential oversupply, present significant risks to MOS, possibly leading to further price declines amidst heightened market volatility.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of price stabilization driven by agricultural strength.

2. 30% likelihood of a downturn due to external economic pressures.

3. 20% chance of rapid growth fueled by successful strategic initiatives.



Trading Oracle: Consider leveraging bullish debit spreads by purchasing December 2024 $26 calls and selling $28 calls. This strategy capitalizes on the forecasted volatility increase while limiting risk, aiming for a favorable reward-to-risk of 2:1. Adjust parameters based on market movements.


November 19, 2024











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Assets that tend to move strongly with MOS


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GO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GO  Grocery Outlet (0.91)


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (0.91)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (0.9)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MOS


TTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTWO  Take-Two Interactive Software (-0.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.0)


AKBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKBA  Akebia Therapeutics (-0.01)


VLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VLO  Valero Energy (-0.01)


AFRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFRM  Affirm (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MOS


PG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PG  Procter & Gamble (-0.88)


RDNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDNT  Radnet (-0.88)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (-0.9)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.9)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (-0.92)







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