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URE Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: The URE market suggests possible upward momentum due to favorable implications drawn from rising implied volatilities, indicating potential demand. Historical returns reveal a strong probability for recovery, potentially moving towards $75 within the next few months.

Bearish Case: Current flat price action and elevated implied volatility point towards increased uncertainty. If market conditions worsen, a decline below $65 is plausible, supported by historical downturn trends and high market uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of stabilization around $70.

2. 25% chance of rallying to $75.

3. 30% chance of a further drop to $65.

4. 15% chance of severe downturn below $60 due to market volatility.

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November 17, 2024

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to URE

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ON ON Semiconductor (0.01)

BBAI BigBear.ai (-0.01)

BAX Baxter International (0.01)

CADL Candel Therapeutics (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against URE

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.73)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.73)

CTRA Coterra Energy (-0.73)

RILY B. Riley Financial (-0.74)

ALV Autoliv (-0.78)

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