VTV Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Despite mean reversion, high historical returns and strong institutional inflows suggest continued upside potential in VTV.




Bearish Case: Increased market uncertainty with higher implied volatilities compared to SPY suggests potential downside risks for VTV.




Potential Outcomes: 80% chance VTV stabilizes with slight upside due to institutional support. 20% risk of correction amidst market volatility and macroeconomic challenges.




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January 04, 2025


Vanguard Value Forecast

VTV        Vanguard Value











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VTV



IWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWR  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.97)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.96)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.96)


DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.94)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VTV



SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (0.01)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.01)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (0.02)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (0.03)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VTV



IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (-0.85)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.87)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.88)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.88)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.95)









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