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YPF Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: YPF's recent price surge (up 192.3% YoY) indicates strong momentum. Continued success in Vaca Muerta and potential government support may drive higher demand, making YPF a strategic long-term buy.



Bearish Case: Persistent inflation and legal uncertainties may hamper YPF's margins, increasing market volatility. The high implied volatility could present risks should unforeseen geopolitical events arise.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Improved regulatory environment (60%): Enhances profitability.

2. Escalating inflation (30%): May compress margins.

3. Stronger global oil prices (10%): Drives stock momentum.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying the $28 call and selling the $29 call expiring in 49 days. This setup capitalizes on favorable metrics with a potential return of 296% and strong market support. Focus on capturing upward movements amid likely volatility compression.


November 08, 2024











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with YPF


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (0.96)


CPNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPNG  Coupang (0.91)


NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (0.9)


VIST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIST  Vista Oil & Gas Sab De Cv (0.89)


IAG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAG  Iamgold (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to YPF


TTWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTWO  Take-Two Interactive Software (0.0)


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (0.01)


NET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NET  Cloudflare (-0.01)


CVGW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CVGW  Calavo Growers (-0.02)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against YPF


CABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CABA  Cabaletta Bio (-0.8)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.81)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.83)


PGNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGNY  Progyny (-0.84)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.85)







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