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Bullish Case: ARR's significant price rebound from a year ago (+286.9%) indicates a strong recovery trend. Recent dividend rate maintenance and its high book value growth point towards a sustaining uptrend.


Bearish Case: A decade-long price decline and interest rate sensitivity suggest persistent vulnerability. Recent leadership changes and dividend adjustments reflect underlying challenges that may hinder growth.


Potential Outcomes: Possible outcomes:

1) Continuation of dividend rate and price growth (35% probability) considering recent performance;

2) Dividend stability with minor price fluctuations (50% probability) in line with historical patterns;

3) Unforeseen economic downturn impacting performance (15% probability) given market volatility.


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March 30, 2024


ARMOUR Residential REIT Forecast

ARR        ARMOUR Residential REIT
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: TRENDING (?)






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AYI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AYI]  Acuity Brands (0.83)


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ALXO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ALXO]  Alx Oncology (0.82)


CNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNC]  Centene (0.81)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to ARR



NOTV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [NOTV]  Inotiv (0.0)


W Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [W]  Wayfair (-0.0)


BXMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BXMT]  Blackstone Mortgage (-0.0)


ZM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ZM]  Zoom Video Communications (-0.01)


OHI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [OHI]  Omega Healthcare Investors (0.01)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARR



BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BB]  BlackBerry (-0.76)


PFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PFE]  Pfizer (-0.76)


ZTO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ZTO]  ZTO Express (Cayman) (-0.76)


FNV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FNV]  Franco-Nevada (-0.77)


GPRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [GPRE]  Green Plains (-0.78)





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