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Bullish Case: ASO's robust ROE and efficient capital reinvestment indicate strong fundamentals, with significant earnings growth over five years bolstering its upward potential.


Bearish Case: Recent price declines and backwardation in option term structure signal market skepticism, possibly due to leadership transitions and earnings growth deceleration.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Strong earnings resurgence (30%): ASO surpasses market expectations, reigniting investor confidence, driving the stock above $65.

2) Stagnation persists (50%): Continuous flat performance due to market apprehension keeps stock around current level.

3) Further downturn (20%): A critical negative market event or significant miss in future earnings crystallizes bearish sentiment, pushing stock below $55.


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April 17, 2024


Academy Sports and Outdoors Forecast

ASO        Academy Sports and Outdoors
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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