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Bullish Case: Recent FDA approval for LUMRYZ and seven years of exclusivity position AVDL to capture a significant narcolepsy market share, potentially driving revenue growth.


Bearish Case: Mixed patent litigation outcomes and potential appeal may undermine investor confidence and AVDL's market position amidst litigation overhang.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful appeal in litigation (40%): increases market exclusivity.

2. Earnings beat (30%): affirmation of growth prospects.

3. Market underperformance (20%): affects share price.

4. Further FDA endorsements (10%): bolsters product line.


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April 04, 2024


Avadel Pharmaceuticals Forecast

AVDL        Avadel Pharmaceuticals
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)






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