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Bullish Case: CVR Energy continues to achieve strong EBITDA, success in its Petroleum and Fertilizer segments, and has maintained generous dividend payouts, signaling potential undervaluation and a solid financial base for growth.


Bearish Case: Decreased net income, lower Q4 2023 sales, tightening distillate spreads, and unfavorable inventory valuations suggest fundamental weaknesses and potential downward price pressures on CVR Energy stocks.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of bullish recovery post-dividend attraction.

2) 50% probability of bearish decline on earnings slowdown.

3) 10% likelihood prices stabilize as market reassesses EBITDA strength.


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April 18, 2024


CVR Energy Forecast

CVI        CVR Energy
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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