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Bullish Case: GDXJ's recent uptick and significant gains over the past month signal a strong short-term trend, buoyed by a 30% heavier bullish risk than bearish risk in the options market, suggesting possible upside if market optimism about gold miners continues to grow.


Bearish Case: Despite recent growth, GDXJ's year-over-year and two-year historical performance indicates a longer-term bearish trend. Market Implied Volatility consistently lower than Helium's forecasts suggests market underestimation of risks, potentially leading to sudden corrections.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 62% chance GDXJ remains steady or slightly increases due to bullish market sentiment;

2) 25% chance of a correction if global economic data underperforms;

3) 13% possible spike if gold prices surge unexpectedly.


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April 20, 2024


VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners Forecast

GDXJ        VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: RANDOM (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with GDXJ



RING Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RING]  BTC iShares MSCI Global G (0.98)


SIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SIL]  Global X Funds - Global X Silver Miners (0.97)


SILJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SILJ]  ETF Managers Group LLC - ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners (0.96)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JNUG]  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.95)


AEM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AEM]  Agnico Eagle Mines (0.9)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to GDXJ



PLAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PLAY]  Dave & Buster's Entertainment (-0.0)


BAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BAM]  Brookfield Asset (0.0)


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [RILY]  B. Riley Financial (-0.0)


SUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [SUM]  Summit Materials (0.0)


XLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XLI]  Industrial Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against GDXJ



TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TBF]  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (-0.59)


HDSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [HDSN]  Hudson Technologies (-0.61)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [TBT]  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.61)


WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [WMT]  Walmart (-0.64)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [JDST]  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.9)





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