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Bullish Case: Unexpected geopolitical developments or surges in market uncertainty could drive short-term volatility spikes, boosting UVXY's value as it is leveraged to capitalize on sudden market fears.


Bearish Case: Given UVXY's historical depreciation trend, overall bearish UVXY risk, and persistent implied volatility underperformance in the contango structure, expectations remain for the continued downward trajectory.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Sudden geopolitical tension or financial shock spikes volatility: 20%.

2. UVXY continues depreciating amid market stability: 60%.

3. Minor events causing modest vol spikes: 15%.

4. Unexpected major economic recovery or political stability: 5%.


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April 23, 2024


ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures Forecast

UVXY        ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with UVXY



VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (0.98)


TECS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TECS  Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (0.92)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.91)


AGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGL  Agilon Health (0.9)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (0.9)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to UVXY



HXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HXL  Hexcel (0.0)


AXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXL  American Axle & Manufacturing (0.0)


GFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GFI  Gold Fields (-0.0)


NGG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGG  National Grid (-0.0)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against UVXY



SKYW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYW  Skywest (-0.95)


CTAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTAS  Cintas (-0.95)


CYBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CYBR  CyberArk Software (-0.96)


UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (-0.96)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.96)





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