Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: IMVT-1402's upcoming trial results show promise, with positive historical returns suggesting strong investor confidence. If approval is secured, the stock could see significant upward movement beyond current pricing.

Bearish Case: Regulatory risk remains high with potential setbacks in ongoing trials. If competitors like J&J's nipocalimab gain traction, IMVT may see downward pressure amid a volatile market environment.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 60% chance of successful trial results driving price above $35.

2) 30% chance of limited approval maintaining current levels.

3) 10% chance of significant downward movement due to failures or delays.

Trading Oracle: Execute bullish debit spreads targeting near-term catalysts. Buy $30 calls and sell $32 calls to capitalize on high implied volatility while managing risk. Expect strong market reactions to upcoming trial readouts and maintain a medium-term outlook for potential upside profits.

October 27, 2024