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LMT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong defense contracts and international expansion drive growth despite geopolitical risks.

Bearish Case: Supply chain issues and F-35 program costs could limit profitability and growth.

Potential Outcomes: Defense contract wins boost LMT by 10% (70%), supply chain issues persist (30%).

Trading Oracle: Sell OTM credit put spreads expiring March 2025. Capitalize on current backwardation and low implied volatilities. Strike below $480 for premium decay advantage.

December 27, 2024

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