Bullish Case: Rising demand for Applied Optoelectronics' products and recent insider buying indicate company confidence and potential for IP litigation success.


Bearish Case: Recent sales miss, ongoing patent litigation, and volatile market conditions suggest near-term risks and potential downside for AAOI stock.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Patent lawsuit win, stock rallies, 55% chance.

2) Mean-reversion pattern continues, stock stabilizes, 40% chance.

3) Sales miss repercussions reflect further, 30% chance.


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April 17, 2024


Applied Optoelectronics Forecast

AAOI        Applied Optoelectronics
Price Forecast: BULLISH    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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