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AAT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AAT's real estate diversification and strong asset management can enhance growth potential. Implied volatility favoring upside trades is attractive.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and negative historical returns imply ongoing risk. Economic pressures and mean reversion amplify downside concerns.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of continued mean reversion aligning with historical trends.

2. 35% likelihood of decline due to external market pressures.

3. 25% chance of mild gains from strategic assets.



Trading Oracle: Consider Helium Short Volatility credit spread strategies targeting AAT's downside risk. Focus on 2-3 month puts to exploit high implied volatility efficiently. The bearish stance with short-term trades maximizes profit potential amid market instability.


January 24, 2025


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AAT        American Assets

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