Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ABM's strong historical price patterns and the potential for institutional investing support a bullish outlook. High call option volumes indicate market optimism.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility around puts signals market uncertainty and bearish sentiment, particularly in light of recent flat price action for ABM.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Bullish sentiment due to institutional investment (65%);

2. Market volatility leading to price stagnation (25%);

3. Negative market reaction to earnings (10%).

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread using ABM 12/20/2024 60.00 C options, taking advantage of the recent volatility spike. Given the strong historical returns for short-term holding, target 3-months for upside capture. Focus on high reward:risk ratio with defined risk exposure while evaluating trends in institutional purchasing. Look to close on positive economic signals.

November 14, 2024