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ACES Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Potential regulatory support and higher clean energy sentiment may drive ACES towards mean-reversion to $30, benefiting from lower volatility.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility at low strike prices indicates market uncertainty. Historical trends suggest a strong possibility of continued price decline below $20.

Potential Outcomes: Mean reversion to $25 (40%) if market stabilizes.
Decline below $20 (30%) due to volatility.
Short-term spike above $28 (30%) with positive news.

April 19, 2025

ALPS Clean Energy Forecast

ACES ALPS Clean Energy

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ACES

TAN Invesco Solar (0.91)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (0.88)

STM New York Shares (0.88)

AEO American Eagle Outfitters (0.87)

XRAY DENTSPLY Sirona (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACES

TTI Tetra Technologies (-0.01)

EA Electronic Arts (0.01)

CAT Caterpillar (-0.02)

HRI Herc (0.02)

APPN Appian (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACES

BK Bank Of New York Mellon (-0.74)

LNG Cheniere Energy (-0.77)

ORI Old Republic International (-0.79)

OUNZ VanEck Merk Gold (-0.8)

ORLY O'Reilly Automotive (-0.87)

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