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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Recent resolution of legal overhangs and strategic M&A opportunities position ACHC for growth, potentially counteracting adverse Medicaid impacts in the medium term. Analysts may increase buy recommendations as the healthcare sector continues to recover post-pandemic.



Bearish Case: Persistent concerns over Medicaid redeterminations, potential scrutiny from the New York Times investigation, and high reliance on short-term volatility suggest a risk of further stock decline, particularly if operational adaptability fails to manifest clearly.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Increased revenue from M&A (60% probability).

2. Negative impact from Medicaid redeterminations (40% probability).

3. Recovery in healthcare sector boosting evaluations (50% probability).

4. Continued pressure from legal scrutiny (30% probability).



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October 19, 2024


Acadia Healthcare Forecast

ACHC        Acadia Healthcare

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