ACHC Forecast


Bullish Case: ACHC’s commitment to expanding its service lines and geographic footprint, coupled with significant growth drivers like M&A and joint ventures, positions the company to capitalize on rising demand for behavioral health services.


Bearish Case: Risks from Medicaid redeterminations, recent insider selling, and concerns over systemic issues in the at-risk youth industry pose significant downward pressure on ACHC’s stock.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Medicaid redeterminations impact (45%),

2) M&A and JVs expand market (65%),

3) Value-based care shift aids earnings (75%),

4) Operational costs pressure earnings (30%).


Trading Oracle: Given flat term structure and higher near-term volatility, a bullish credit spread is ideal. Sell the September 2024 $70 puts and buy the December 2024 $65 puts to leverage mean reversion and capitalize on upward momentum. Time outlook: 3-6 months.


July 17, 2024


Acadia Healthcare Forecast

ACHC      Acadia Healthcare











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