AES Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: AES has a history of positive returns in long-term holding periods and is currently undervalued. Historical price returns indicate potential resilience, supported by underlying solid fundamentals despite market volatility.


Bearish Case: AES is currently experiencing higher implied volatility and recent price action indicates a downward trend. Market's higher put trading volume suggests bearish sentiment. Significant downside risk exists from broader market stress and financial instability.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of AES maintaining flat to slightly positive performance in the next 6 months. 30% chance of notable price decline due to economic stress. 20% chance of a rally in tech sector lifting AES.


Trading Oracle: Short-term bearish outlook. Trade short volatility: sell 1 AES $18 call, buy 2 AES $20 calls, expiring in 31 days. High probability-of-profit at 78%, leveraging current market sentiment and Helium's modeling. Focus on capturing theta decay with minimal vega risk. Monitor for significant market shifts.


July 17, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AES



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.11)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.02)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.22)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AES



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.02)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.11)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.22)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AES



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.11)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.02)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.22)





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