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AFB Forecast

Bullish Case: AFB may benefit from increased municipal bond demand due to potential economic recovery, signaling a shift in investor sentiment favoring safer assets, as indicated by historical upward trends over longer holding periods.

Bearish Case: Continued macroeconomic instability and AFB's historical negative returns suggest a bearish outlook, especially with recent flat price movements indicating lack of momentum or investor confidence.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Economic recovery: 40% chance—Investors rotate into bonds.

2. Continued flat market: 35% chance—Lackluster growth persists.

3. Downturn due to economic instability: 25% chance—Negative returns continue as market sentiment worsens.

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November 21, 2024

AllianceBernstein National Municipal Income Forecast

AFB AllianceBernstein National Municipal Income

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AFB

ICE Intercontinental Exchange (0.9)

HRB H&R Block (0.88)

IBB BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Biotechnology (0.88)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.88)

SPGI S&P Global (0.87)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AFB

IVR Invesco Mortgage (-0.01)

IJH BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (-0.01)

EWY iShares MSCI South Korea (-0.01)

TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software (0.02)

CHAU Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AFB

RILY B. Riley Financial (-0.79)

CAR Avis Budget (-0.79)

ZI ZoomInfo (-0.79)

OCSL Oaktree Specialty Lending (-0.8)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.82)

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