AGO Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AGO's strong position in municipal insurance, coupled with favorable credit ratings and past resilience, suggests potential for growth amid economic recovery.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility at lower strike prices and regulatory risks could pressure AGO, particularly with potential economic downturns affecting bond markets.




Potential Outcomes:

1) Modest EPS growth leads to slight gains (55%).

2) Regulatory headwinds cause price dip (25%).

3) Market stability keeps prices steady (20%).




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January 28, 2025


Assured Guaranty Forecast

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Assets that tend to move strongly with AGO



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CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.82)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (0.8)


SNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNA  Snap-on (0.78)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGO



FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.0)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (-0.0)


SNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNX  TD Synnex (0.0)


CALX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALX  Calix (-0.01)


CORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORN  Teucrium Corn (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGO



GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (-0.67)


ACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACB  Aurora Cannabis (-0.71)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.75)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.75)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.78)









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