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AGS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AGS is trading just below the acquisition target of $12.50, with positive options sentiment and a historical price trend showing increased relative likelihood of moderate returns.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, with historical return patterns suggesting potential downside risks, and regulatory uncertainties possibly affecting acquisition prospects.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Acquisition completes (55%): Price ~ $12.50.

2. Regulatory delay (25%): Volatility persists.

3. Market correction (10%): Price declines sharply.

4. Gradual mean reversion (10%): Small price adjustments.

June 06, 2025

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