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AGS Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AGS is trading just below the acquisition target of $12.50, with positive options sentiment and a historical price trend showing increased relative likelihood of moderate returns.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty, with historical return patterns suggesting potential downside risks, and regulatory uncertainties possibly affecting acquisition prospects.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Acquisition completes (55%): Price ~ $12.50.

2. Regulatory delay (25%): Volatility persists.

3. Market correction (10%): Price declines sharply.

4. Gradual mean reversion (10%): Small price adjustments.

June 06, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AGS

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LPLA LPL Financial (0.83)

ZLAB Zai Lab (0.83)

VRSN Verisign (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGS

BIP Brookfield Infrastructure (-0.0)

VSCO Victoria's Secret (-0.0)

RPM RPM International (0.01)

CVX Chevron (0.02)

RF Regions Financial (0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGS

FSLR First Solar (-0.8)

NVO Novo Nordisk (-0.81)

LEN Lennar (-0.81)

EPI WisdomTree India Earnings (-0.81)

REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)

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