AIG Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AIG's low P/B ratio at 0.8, consistent insider buying, and high call volumes suggest robust growth potential supported by strong fundamentals and implied upward momentum.




Bearish Case: AIG faces persistent low market interest and backwardation in implied volatility, signaling potential stagnation. External economic pressures could influence further downside despite current bullish option activity.




Potential Outcomes: Growth (40%): Strong fundamentals and insider confidence. Stagnation (40%): Low market interest persists. Downturn (20%): External factors cause unforeseen volatility.




Trading Oracle: Employ bullish debit spreads with AIG 75/76 calls, expiring in March 2025, capitalizing on high implied volatility and call volumes. This short-term strategy offers a high reward:risk ratio, leveraging mean reversion with a 60-day horizon. Monitor market reactions actively.



January 23, 2025


American International Forecast

AIG        American International











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