AIG Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: A low price-to-book ratio and historical mean reversion suggest potential undervaluation, while strategic transformations enhance growth alignment, supported by insider confidence.




Bearish Case: Volatility term structure backwardation indicates near-term uncertainty, and low option trading volume at the 18th percentile suggests possible stagnation due to weak market interest.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Growth driven by digital transformation and earnings improvement (40%).

2. Stagnation due to weak momentum and backwardation (40%).

3. Downturn from geopolitical or regulatory shocks (20%).



March 12, 2025


American International Forecast

AIG        American International











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AIG



HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (0.6)


PARA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PARA  Paramount Global (0.57)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (0.57)


SAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAN  Banco Santander (0.52)


LU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LU  Lufax Holding Ltd (0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AIG



SPLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLV  Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.0)


CTLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTLP  Cantaloupe (-0.0)


FAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FAS  Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares (-0.0)


HIMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMS  Hims & Hers Health (0.0)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AIG



RIVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIVN  Rivian Automotive (-0.38)


FRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRPT  Freshpet (-0.41)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (-0.48)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (-0.48)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.49)









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