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AIG Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AIG shows growth potential with a low P/B ratio of 0.8 and strong insider buying, supported by call option volume up 56% over puts.

Bearish Case: Persistently low market interest and a backwardated implied volatility term structure signal limited upside and potential stagnation.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Growth from undervaluation and insider confidence (40%).

2. Stagnation due to low interest (35%).

3. Downturn from market volatility (25%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: Buy AIG 74.00 calls, sell 75.00 calls with a 60-day horizon. High implied volatility promises premium capture, leveraging mean reversion and insider sentiment.

December 26, 2024

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AIG

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MU Micron Technology (0.71)

SCCO Southern Copper (0.69)

WFC Wells Fargo (0.68)

XOP SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.64)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AIG

EXEL Exelixis (0.0)

INTU Intuit (-0.0)

EXR Extra Space Storage (-0.01)

BRKR Bruker (-0.01)

SGMO Sangamo Therapeutics (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AIG

WMT Walmart (-0.53)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.54)

YCL ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.54)

NOVA Sunnova Energy International (-0.55)

ZTS Zoetis (-0.56)

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