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AIG Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AIG's strong insider buying, low P/B ratio, and high call volume suggest potential growth. The implied volatility surface supports upward momentum, aligning with strategic moves enhancing fundamental strength.



Bearish Case: Persistent backwardation in implied volatility and mean-reverting price action signal potential stagnation. Low confidence in future volatility may limit growth and expose downside risks despite high trading volumes.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Growth (35%): Insider confidence drives price increase.
  • Stagnation (40%): Low interest & backwardation persist.
  • Downturn (25%): External shocks trigger price decline.


May 18, 2025


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