Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: A favorable outcome from ongoing trials could catalyze substantial revenue growth, pushing ALNY above $300. The strong pipeline and dropping litigation pressures support bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Continued legal issues and recent lack of bullish momentum since the September lawsuit drop may keep ALNY depressed. High implied volatility suggests investor anxiety, risking further downturns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 50% chance of positive trial results, driving the price to $290.
2. 30% chance of stagnation near $230 due to market caution.
3. 20% chance of litigation surprises pushing prices down to $210.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish debit spread by buying $240 calls and selling $250 calls expiring January 2025. This utilizes the favorable structure in implied volatility with expected upside in ALNY's performance, positioning for a 69% win rate amid positive trial announcements.

November 20, 2024