Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ALNY's bullish outlook is supported by a stable term structure and positive analyst sentiment, alongside an implied volatility that indicates investor confidence despite recent pressures, suggesting a potential for upward price movements driven by pipeline advancements and recovering market sentiment.

Bearish Case: The bearish perspective is rooted in elevated implied volatility, ongoing litigation risks, and a recent settlement with Moderna that could raise concerns about future revenue. Combined with flat price action, these factors could lead to downward price pressure, particularly amid potential market corrections.

Potential Outcomes:

1) 60% chance of favorable trial results boosting stock above $300.

2) 30% chance of legal setbacks negatively impacting price, likely pushing it down to $250-$270.

3) 10% chance of maintaining current levels due to balancing factors in market sentiment and volatility.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using ALNY's $300/$310 call options expiring December 2024. This targets upside potential at a lower risk premium and utilizes the downward pressure on implied volatility from current market conditions for a favorable entry while capitalizing on projected price appreciation.

October 20, 2024