ALX Forecast


Bullish Case: ALX's recent uptick (6.0% in the last month) and strong fundamentals like a healthy cash position and stable major asset (731 Lexington Avenue) offer potential for continued recovery [Helium].


Bearish Case: ALX’s historical trend of significant long-term decline (-40.3% over five years) and mean-reverting nature suggest a potential for continued downturn amid high leverage and debt pressures [Helium][Helium].


Potential Outcomes:

1. Mild asset appreciation and stable dividend, leveraging cash reserves (35%).

2. Stagnation due to mean-reverting price action and neutral AI forecast (40%).

3. Declines amid debt risks and historical price trends (25%).(Estimated probabilities adjusted based on recent trends and AI forecast) [Helium][Helium][Helium][defenseworld.net].


Trading Oracle: Short-term bearish outlook favors ALX credit spreads (Helium Short Volatility) with 1-2 month expirations. Despite recent mild gains, the long-term mean-reverting nature and high debt pose significant risks. Initiate bearish credit spreads to capitalize on probable price corrections.


June 30, 2024


Alexander's Forecast

ALX      Alexander's











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ALX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.7)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.14)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.14)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.7)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.7)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.14)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.59)





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