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AMGN Forecast + Trading Strategies

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Amgen's robust pipeline and recent FDA approvals bolster growth prospects. Positive sentiment and mean-reverting price action support bullish trends.

Bearish Case: Increased biosimilar competition and patent expirations pose risks. High debt and regulatory scrutiny may dampen investor confidence, causing potential downward pressure.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance: Successful pipeline developments drive revenue growth.
30% chance: Regulatory challenges impact stock negatively.
25% chance: Competitive pressures from biosimilars.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying $295 calls and selling $300 calls expiring in March 2025. This strategy leverages mean-reverting trends and favorable implied volatility, offering a strong reward-to-risk ratio with potential gains from recent approvals and pipeline developments.

February 14, 2025

AMGEN Forecast

AMGN AMGEN

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