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AMGN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A strong drug pipeline, particularly in obesity and oncology, combined with ongoing revenue from existing drugs, supports a bullish outlook on AMGN shares as upcoming approvals could further fuel growth.



Bearish Case: Intense competition from biosimilars and potential legal challenges related to drug pricing and patent issues could dampen AMGN’s revenue growth prospects, making for a bearish outlook amidst increased market uncertainty.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Increased revenue from obesity drugs (60%)
  • Biosimilar competition impacts sales (40%)
  • Regulatory scrutiny on pricing (20%)
  • Successful drug launches (70%)
  • Patent expirations and litigation (30%)



Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread by buying $280 calls and selling $285 calls, targeting short-term gains as implied volatility is projected to rise. Focus on aligning with upcoming earnings calls and leveraging market positivity. Anticipate significant movement, given the skew in implied volatility reflects a higher bullish sentiment.


December 12, 2024











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Assets that tend to move strongly with AMGN


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IIPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IIPR  Innovative Industrial Properties (0.71)


RKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKT  Rocket Companies (0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AMGN


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.0)


CHPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHPT  ChargePoint (-0.0)


VSCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSCO  Victoria's Secret (0.0)


ACM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACM  AECOM (0.01)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMGN


CBRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRL  Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (-0.66)


FIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIVE  Five Below (-0.68)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.71)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.76)


BITO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BITO  ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (-0.8)







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