AMGN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Amgen's solid R&D pipeline, particularly for obesity treatments like MariTide and recent FDA approvals, points to potential market leadership and significant revenue boosts. A stable dividend yield and consistency in earnings further bolster investor confidence.


Bearish Case: Increased competitive pressure from biosimilars, alongside recent patent challenges and insider selling, raises concerns about Amgen's market position. Legal obstacles and failure to secure new revenue streams could hinder growth prospects.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful drug launches (60%);

2. Continued market share erosion from biosimilars (50%);

3. Regulatory hurdles negatively impacting product release timelines (40%);

4. Stronger-than-expected sales from new obesity drug (35%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish credit spread by selling $340 calls and buying $350 calls, expiring in ~4 days. This strategy capitalizes on the current market sentiment and implied volatility dynamics, aligning with a potentially stable or declining price outlook.


July 24, 2024










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