AMZN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Amazon's strong AWS and digital advertising growth, coupled with innovative expansions, present a resilient case to capitalize on future tech trends, boosting investor confidence.




Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny, competitive pressures, and recent volatility in e-commerce could suppress AMZN’s short-term performance, coupled with potential logistic challenges.




Potential Outcomes:

1. AWS Growth Drives Revenue (70%).

2. Regulatory Challenges Continue (40%).

3. New Tech Innovations Boost Sentiment (50%).




Trading Oracle: Considering the flat term structure and current option volumes, the Bullish Short Volatility strategy is ideal, leveraging long tail convexity as AMZN's implied volatility points to muted near-term market reactions.



March 08, 2025


Amazon.com Forecast

AMZN        Amazon.com











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IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.84)


APP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APP  Applovin Corp (0.84)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AMZN



WST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WST  West Pharmaceutical Services (0.0)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.0)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (0.01)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.01)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMZN



GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.76)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.78)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.79)


PEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEP  Pepsico (-0.79)


CAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAL  Caleres (-0.85)









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