ARKK Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: With a 5% higher Helium implied volatility forecast, ARKK could see upside as investor optimism in disruptive technologies grows. Potential tech sector recovery may drive further gains.




Bearish Case: ARKK’s heavy tech concentration remains vulnerable to macroeconomic pressures and valuation concerns. Recent 11% weekly decline signals potential continued weakness amid prevailing negative sentiment.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Upside continuation with tech recovery (40%).
  • Stagnation as macro uncertainties persist (30%).
  • Further decline from bearish sentiment (30%).




Trading Oracle:

Given the high implied volatility and ARKK's volatility, Bullish Short Volatility is advisable. Selling an ATM put, while buying more OOTM puts, captures premium decays and benefits from a potential price correction or stagnation.



April 03, 2025


ARK Innovation Forecast

ARKK        ARK Innovation











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