ARKK Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: ARKK's exposure to disruptive technologies and potential deregulation under new policies can drive growth despite market skepticism. Helium's higher implied volatility suggests potential upside surprises.




Bearish Case: High concentration in volatile tech stocks poses risks. Recent downward price action, coupled with high implied volatility, signals potential corrections and investor skepticism in the short term.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat trend with possible mild upside (45%).

2. Short correction due to high volatility (30%).

3. Bearish trend due to macroeconomic pressures (25%).




Trading Oracle: Exploit short-term bearish outlook. Trade bearish short volatility credit spreads by selling $62.5 call and buying $66 calls. This gains from premium decay and leverages high volatility. Expect correction or stagnation within a week.



February 22, 2025


ARK Innovation Forecast

ARKK        ARK Innovation











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