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ARR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: ARR could strengthen if the housing market rebounds, driven by a potential dividend increase. Moreover, current high historical returns suggest a bullish sentiment in the long term.



Bearish Case: Potential for further dividend cuts exists due to ongoing earnings weakness and high interest rates, which could pressure ARR's stock price downward.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1) Continued stable dividends leading to moderate price growth: 40%
  • 2) Dividend cuts due to ongoing market weakness: 35%
  • 3) Price recovery and dividend increases as economy strengthens: 25%



Trading Oracle: Consider establishing a bearish credit spread by selling $21 puts and buying $20 puts, harnessing high implied volatility. With the housing market's potential decline, target downside protection while capturing premium. Maintain a cautious stance on notifications of earnings reports to adjust strategies.


December 07, 2024


ARMOUR Residential REIT Forecast

ARR        ARMOUR Residential REIT

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