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ARR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ARR's high call option volume and positive sentiment from significant past price increases indicate opportunity for short-term gains, supported by a high dividend yield as a stabilizing factor.



Bearish Case: Interest rate sensitivity and high implied volatility suggest risk of dividend cuts, especially with backwardation in volatility term structure pointing to market concerns.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Dividend maintained, slight growth (50% chance).
  2. Dividend cut, price decline (40%).
  3. Rebound with economic improvement (10%).


March 18, 2025


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