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ARR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ARR's high call option volume and positive sentiment from significant past price increases indicate opportunity for short-term gains, supported by a high dividend yield as a stabilizing factor.



Bearish Case: Interest rate sensitivity and high implied volatility suggest risk of dividend cuts, especially with backwardation in volatility term structure pointing to market concerns.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Dividend maintained, slight growth (50% chance).
  2. Dividend cut, price decline (40%).
  3. Rebound with economic improvement (10%).


March 18, 2025


ARMOUR Residential REIT Forecast

ARR        ARMOUR Residential REIT

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ARR


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (0.77)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.75)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (0.7)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (0.7)


ST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ST  Sensata (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ARR


PRU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRU  Prudential Financial (0.01)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (0.01)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (-0.01)


TSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSN  Tyson Foods (-0.02)


UUUU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUUU  Energy Fuels (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ARR


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (-0.62)


RVLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RVLV  Revolve (-0.63)


BBW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBW  Build A Bear Workshop (-0.64)


ALSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALSN  Allison Transmission (-0.65)


SHAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHAK  Shake Shack (-0.68)







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