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ASA Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ASA shows strong historical returns, especially over extended holding periods, and current trends indicate resilience in gold demand, bolstering ASA’s potential.

Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility and market uncertainty suggest potential downside risks, compounded by macroeconomic instability affecting gold prices negatively.

Potential Outcomes: Price Increase (~40%): Supported by stable gold demand and positive historical trends.
Stagnation (~30%): Due to ongoing market uncertainties and moderate implied volatility.
Decline (~30%): Economic challenges and volatility spikes could drive prices lower.

March 18, 2025

ASA Gold and Precious Metals Forecast

ASA ASA Gold and Precious Metals

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ASA

KGC Kinross Gold (0.97)

SATS EchoStar (0.94)

NOK Nokia (0.93)

ALHC Alignment Healthcare (0.92)

BCS Barclays (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ASA

VOD Vodafone (0.0)

IFF International Flavors & Fragrances (0.02)

CPS Cooper-Standard (0.03)

TSN Tyson Foods (-0.03)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ASA

DVN Devon Energy (-0.82)

RIG Transocean (-0.85)

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (-0.86)

ATKR Atkore (-0.86)

COTY Coty (-0.86)

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