ASC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: High probability of positive returns (up to 26%) within short-term holding (less than a year). Recent AI price forecast is +0.63%. Institutional investors are adding positions.


Bearish Case: Mean-reverting price action and recent diminished interest (26th percentile volume) imply potential stagnation or decline. Historical data suggests mixed outcomes.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of 10-15% growth driven by positive AI forecasts and institutional interest.

2. 45% chance of price stagnation due to mean-reverting dynamics and current trading volume.

3. 15% chance of 10%+ drop given historical volatility and market conditions.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a bullish debit spread by buying ASC 20.0 calls and selling ASC 22.5 calls expiring in 35 days. This strategy leverages favorable short-term return probabilities and recent positive AI forecasts. Alpha potential, high reward:risk, and high probability-of-profit justify this position.


July 16, 2024


Ardmore Shipping Forecast

ASC      Ardmore Shipping











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ASC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ASC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.8)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ASC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.9)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.36)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.72)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.8)





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