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ATSG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ATSG's strategic positioning in the cargo sector and potential growth in e-commerce support a bullish outlook. Historical return surfaces indicate favorable outcomes for medium-term holds, suggesting increased investor confidence.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent options trading suggest market wariness. Persistent negative earnings growth and historical negative return likelihoods for shorter holds indicate potential downside risk.

Potential Outcomes: 30%: Price increase due to strategic cargo demand and partnerships.
50%: Price decline driven by negative earnings trends and market skepticism.
20%: Price stabilization with mixed market signals.

March 15, 2025

Air Transport Services Forecast

ATSG Air Transport Services

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ATSG

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.96)

BCS Barclays (0.96)

CRS Carpenter Technology (0.94)

SAP Sap SE (0.94)

ERJ Embraer (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ATSG

EIX Edison International (0.0)

ESTC Elastic (0.0)

APPF Appfolio (0.0)

BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.0)

TAL TAL Education (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ATSG

STM New York Shares (-0.88)

CNI Canadian National Railway (-0.88)

GES Guess (-0.89)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.9)

DOW Dow (-0.9)

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