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ATSG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Strong demand in e-commerce and strategic partnerships boost ATSG, supporting growth potential despite economic concerns.

Bearish Case: Persistent negative earnings growth and market volatility suggest downside risk, deterring investor confidence in the near term.

Potential Outcomes: Price increase by 40% due to demand (30%).
Price decrease by 15% from earnings trends (50%).
Price remains stable with mixed conditions (20%).

Trading Oracle: Use a bullish long call spread with June $22.50/$25 calls. Leverage high implied volatility and cargo demand. Target medium-term upside. High reward:risk with limited downside risk.

February 13, 2025

Air Transport Services Forecast

ATSG Air Transport Services

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ATSG

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.96)

BCS Barclays (0.96)

LINC Lincoln Educational Services (0.94)

ZION Zions Bancorporation N.A (0.94)

CRS Carpenter Technology (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ATSG

CRC California Resources (-0.0)

LCID Lucid (-0.0)

RMBS Rambus (0.0)

VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals (0.01)

BHVN Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ATSG

GES Guess (-0.88)

XRX Xerox (-0.89)

EL Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.9)

DOG ProShares Short Dow30 (-0.91)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)

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