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AUB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AUB's recent merger with Sandy Spring Bancorp offers potential synergies that could enhance market share and profitability, supported by a favorable historical return profile.

Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges and integration risks from recent mergers could pressure AUB's margins and investor confidence, compounded by recent price declines and high volatility.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful merger drives growth (60%).

2. Integration challenges suppress gains (25%).

3. Economic downturn impacts loans (15%).

March 15, 2025

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