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AUPH Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: AUPH could experience a positive shift driven by institutional investment and potential strategic decisions, as implied volatility remains elevated, suggesting market optimism.



Bearish Case: Continued high volatility combined with downward pressure from recent layoffs suggests potential for further decline, especially if market sentiment worsens.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Increased institutional stake (25%);

2) Continued layoffs leading to volatility (30%);

3) Positive earnings surprising the market (20%);

4) No significant change, maintaining current price (25%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy AUPH $8 call, sell $9 call, given recent positive volatility and upcoming strategic moves. This can leverage the expected volatility uptick while controlling risk. Focus on a 31-day horizon to capture quick price movements without holding through potential downturns.


November 21, 2024


Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Forecast

AUPH        Aurinia Pharmaceuticals

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