AXSM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Multiple upcoming drug approvals are expected, combined with robust historical returns and a potential market revaluation.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility infers possible overvaluation in the near term, exacerbated by low trading volume and historical price drops.


Potential Outcomes: Regulatory approvals (50%), overvaluation correction (30%), and ongoing price stability (20%) derived from historical patterns.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish short volatility strategy by selling 87.5 strike calls and buying 95.0 strike calls, expiring in ~29 days. This leverages current high implied volatility and low trading volume for a strategy with a 70% profit probability, historical 7% annual return, strong edge, and favorable risk-reward.


July 19, 2024


Axsome Therapeutics Forecast

AXSM      Axsome Therapeutics











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AXSM



ZIMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZIMV  ZimVie (0.72)


IGMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IGMS  IGM Biosciences (0.71)


XERS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XERS  Xeris Biopharma (0.7)


LBTYA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LBTYA  Liberty Global plc (0.69)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AXSM



WMB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMB  Williams Cos (0.0)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.0)


BDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BDX  Becton, Dickinson And Company (0.0)


BTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BTI  British American Tobacco (-0.0)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AXSM



DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.54)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.55)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.58)


SARK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SARK  Tuttle Capital Short Innovation (-0.6)


UUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UUP  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish (-0.64)





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