BANF Forecast


Bullish Case: BANF maintains a high insider ownership at 34%, reflecting strong internal confidence. Historical price returns show potential for a 5-10% upside over a two-year holding period.


Bearish Case: Mean reverting trend and recent insider sales indicate caution. Historical price surface suggests a -5 to -10% return likelihood, supported by recent negative momentum.


Potential Outcomes: 5% surge from improved loan growth and lower interest rates (25%), sideway movement with mean reversion (45%), 10% drop from continued insider sales and market sentiment (30%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bear call spread using the 90 strike call and 95 strike call expiring in December 2024. Short volatility approach leverages high IV and expected mean reversion. Short-term outlook: <6 months.


June 30, 2024


Bancfirst Forecast

BANF      Bancfirst











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BANF



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.19)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.05)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BANF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.05)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.19)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.45)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BANF



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.19)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.05)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.15)





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