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BAX Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Baxter's jump in traded call volume and recovering product lines post-Hurricane could drive positive sentiment. The backwardation in implied volatility suggests expected near-term movement.



Bearish Case: Baxter's continued operational struggles, regulatory challenges, and supply disruptions may maintain downward pressure. Historical price data shows predominant negative returns, aligning with bearish forecast.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Price increase due to operational recovery and strategic moves (35%).
  • Continued decline due to hurdles and volatility (50%).
  • Stabilization amid mixed signals (15%).



Trading Oracle: Employ a bearish short volatility strategy. Sell $35 strike calls while buying $37.5 calls, utilizing elevated implied volatility and near-term expectations in backwardation. Target 30-day expiration to maximize volatility decay, aiming for 81% expected profit.


January 30, 2025


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