Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The bullish case hinges on positive trial results boosting market sentiment, potentially driving BHVN above $60. Strong pipeline prospects and an advantageous volatility structure support upside momentum.

Bearish Case: A continued decline in market sentiment, regulatory setbacks, or poor trial results could push BHVN back towards $40. High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty regarding future price stability.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive trial results: 30% chance;

2. Regulatory delays: 25% chance;

3. Market adoption challenges: 20% chance;

4. General market downturn: 25% chance. These reflect updated market sentiments.

Trading Oracle: A bull call spread by buying the $50 call and selling the $55 call could capitalize on current volatility while limiting risk. With current market conditions indicating a sharp upside potential, this trade exploits high volatility and offers effective management of exposure. Aim for a potential return of 20% (annualized ~60%).

November 14, 2024