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BMO Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: BMO shows signs of resilience with increasing trading volume in call options, positioning itself for potential upside amidst broader market recovery. The strategic investments and low-implied volatility suggest future confidence among investors.



Bearish Case: Amidst rising implied volatility for put options and a flat term structure, concerns about global economic conditions could hinder BMO's growth, indicating potential downside risk despite recent volume spikes.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance BMO breaks above $100 by Q1 2025, driven by strategic investments.

2. 30% chance of price stagnation around $92 due to market volatility.

3. 30% chance of decline to $85 driven by external economic pressures.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying the 12/20/2024 $95 call and selling the $100 call to capitalize on moderate upside potential with high probability of profit based on current market conditions and volatility metrics. Aim for risks with solid earnings reports ahead.


November 15, 2024


Bank of Montreal Forecast

BMO        Bank of Montreal

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BMO


CPA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPA  Copa (0.78)


CLOU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLOU  Global X Funds - Global X Cloud Computing (0.75)


ALT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALT  Altimmune (0.75)


HST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HST  Host Hotels & Resorts (0.73)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BMO


CRH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRH  CRH Plc (0.0)


QQQJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQJ  Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 (0.0)


FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (0.0)


NVT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVT  nVent Electric (-0.0)


IR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IR  Ingersoll-Rand (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BMO


BTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BTI  British American Tobacco (-0.51)


PSQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSQ  ProShares Short QQQ (-0.51)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (-0.52)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.53)


NTAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTAP  Netapp (-0.53)







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