BMRN Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Strong historical mean reversion and potential positive catalysts, such as trial results, suggest upward potential for BMRN despite current volatility.




Bearish Case: BMRN's persistent high R&D costs, competition, and negative sentiment coupled with high implied volatility indicate a risk of further downside.




Potential Outcomes: 50% mean reversion recovery, 25% bearish continuation, 25% positive catalyst drives upside.




Trading Oracle: Sell BMRN $67.50 call, buy $72.50 call, expiring in ~24 days. This bearish short-volatility spread leverages current flat volatility structure, aiming for modest profits with 77% market odds of profit. High reward:risk with optimal edge.



December 26, 2024


Registered Shares Forecast

BMRN        Registered Shares











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BMRN



CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.01)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.01)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.01)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.01)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BMRN



NRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRG  NRG Energy (-0.81)


MFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFC  Manulife Financial (-0.82)


BBAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAR  BBVA Argentina (-0.83)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (-0.83)


APO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APO  Apollo (-0.84)









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