BMRN Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BMRN's mean-reverting nature, coupled with currently deflated implied volatilities and potential for positive news, suggests room for upward price correction. Historical price returns show strong recovery potential.


Bearish Case: BMRN's recent insider selling and ongoing bearish trends indicate persistent uncertainty. Implied volatility discrepancies and low trading volume reflect continued market apprehension.


Potential Outcomes: Mean reversion recovery (50%). Continued bearish trend from market sentiment (30%). Unexpected positive news triggers spike (20%).


Trading Oracle: Engage in a bearish short-volatility credit spread: Sell the $85.0 call and buy the $90.0 call expiring in ~10 days. High probability of profit (79%), leveraging flat term structure and low implied volatility. Positive edge, high reward:risk, and high probability of profit.


July 11, 2024


Registered Shares Forecast

BMRN      Registered Shares











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BMRN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.34)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BMRN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.34)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.45)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BMRN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.34)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)





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