BOIL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Increased winter demand for natural gas, combined with rising geopolitical tensions, could significantly raise BOIL prices, taking advantage of heightened volatility and speculative interest.




Bearish Case: An oversupply of natural gas coupled with a decrease in demand and bearish market sentiment could result in deeper declines for BOIL, exacerbated by current implied volatility trends that reflect uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Short-term price increase due to seasonal demand (30% chance)
  • Price stabilization at current levels (50% chance)
  • Significant decline if oversupply and low demand persist (20% chance)




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread strategy: buy the $45 call and sell the $46 call, targeting short-term upward moves while taking advantage of high implied volatility. Expect potential gains with a favorable risk/reward profile and a 70% probability of profit over the next month.



December 19, 2024


ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas Forecast

BOIL        ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas











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CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.79)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BOIL



IAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAC  IAC InterActiveCorp. (-0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.02)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (-0.03)


V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (0.05)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (-0.06)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BOIL



OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.74)


TREX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TREX  TREX Co. (-0.76)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (-0.78)


ANET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANET  Arista Networks (-0.82)


ALV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALV  Autoliv (-0.82)









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