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BP Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: BP’s stock benefits from a strong transition towards renewables, consistent dividend payouts, and investor confidence in a diversified energy strategy, fostering long-term growth.



Bearish Case: Continued regulatory and legal hurdles, coupled with geopolitical instability and volatility in oil prices, may pressure BP’s profitability and investor sentiment negatively.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40%: Renewables push boosts stock
  • 30%: Regulatory/legal challenges weigh down
  • 20%: Stable performance with slight upward bias
  • 10%: Significant volatility due to geopolitical factors



Trading Oracle: Focus on bullish debit spreads due to the backwardation and lower longer-term implied volatility. Consider $32-$34 call spreads expiring by June. The strategy leverages near-term volatility upticks and positive renewable initiatives for high reward:risk within 3-4 months.


February 05, 2025


BP Forecast

BP        BP

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BP


SU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SU  Suncor Energy (-0.0)


UVXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVXY  ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (0.0)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BP


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.89)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGTX  TG Therapeutics (-0.9)


TAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAC  Transalta (-0.9)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.9)


TVTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TVTX  Travere Therapeutics (-0.91)







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