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BP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: BP is poised for growth with improved oil demand forecasts and strategic investments in renewables, which could foster investor confidence and stock growth.

Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges and litigation risks pose headwinds, with a shift back to fossil fuels showing potential long-term profitability pressures.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil demand boosts profits (40%)

2. Regulatory/legal difficulties harm business (35%)

3. Stable with upward bias (25%)

Trading Oracle: Use Bullish Short Volatility: Selling ATM puts and buying OOTM puts optimally captures edge with market volatility patterns showing favorability toward lower equites risk.

March 06, 2025

BP Forecast

BP BP

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BP

EC Ecopetrol SA (0.95)

SAGE Sage Therapeutics (0.91)

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (0.89)

DVN Devon Energy (0.86)

PSX Phillips 66 (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BP

BAH Booz Allen Hamilton (-0.01)

PTLO Portillos (0.01)

SEE Sealed Air (0.01)

APLE Apple Hospitality REIT (-0.02)

ASAN Asana (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BP

EVR Evercore (-0.89)

SLG SL Green Realty (-0.9)

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.9)

MNKD Mannkind (-0.9)

TRUP Trupanion (-0.92)

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