BP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BP is poised for growth with improved oil demand forecasts and strategic investments in renewables, which could foster investor confidence and stock growth.




Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges and litigation risks pose headwinds, with a shift back to fossil fuels showing potential long-term profitability pressures.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil demand boosts profits (40%)

2. Regulatory/legal difficulties harm business (35%)

3. Stable with upward bias (25%)




Trading Oracle: Use Bullish Short Volatility: Selling ATM puts and buying OOTM puts optimally captures edge with market volatility patterns showing favorability toward lower equites risk.



March 06, 2025


BP Forecast

BP        BP











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BP



EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (0.95)


SAGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAGE  Sage Therapeutics (0.91)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.89)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.86)


PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BP



SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (0.01)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.01)


BAH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAH  Booz Allen Hamilton (-0.01)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.03)


FSLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLR  First Solar (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BP



TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (-0.88)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (-0.89)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.89)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.9)


SLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLG  SL Green Realty (-0.9)









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