BTA Forecast


Bullish Case: BTA is showing slight positive momentum short-term (3.4% up YoY) and upgrades to the MBTA infrastructure may improve confidence (Blue Line overhaul complete, full system by end 2024) [Boston Herald].


Bearish Case: Long-term return is generally negative (10 years underperformed -10.7%) [Helium]; persistent MBTA disruptions and fiscal challenges (-$700M 2026 gap) could undermine confidence [nbcboston.com][Boston Herald].


Potential Outcomes: Strong infrastructure reform may increase BTA by 5-10% (35%). Fiscal shortfalls could reduce BTA by 15-20% (45%). Stable conditions might lead to sideways trading (+/-1%) (20%).


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June 27, 2024


BlackRock Long-Term Municipal Advantage Forecast

BTA      BlackRock Long-Term Municipal Advantage











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BTA



BITF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BITF  Bitfarms (0.89)


SPGI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPGI  S&P Global (0.88)


PVH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PVH  PVH (0.87)


FOUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FOUR  Shift4 Payments (0.86)


IDCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDCC  Interdigital (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BTA



BYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYD  Boyd Gaming (-0.0)


CRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRMD  CorMedix (0.0)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (0.0)


NVCR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVCR  NovoCure (0.0)


PAAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAAS  Pan American Silver (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BTA



SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.78)


TH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TH  Target Hospitality Corp (-0.79)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.79)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.86)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.87)





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